The difference between someone who goes to Vegas, puts a single coin in a machine and wins $1 million. The degree of randomness in an activity : someone "lower" who does something well repeatedly wrongly gets less credit than the CEO who might have made one or two good decisions. The higher-up the corporate ladder, the lower the evidence of contribution.
One's dependence on randomness is greater. $10 million earned playing Russian Roulette does not have the same value as $10 million earned through the diligent and artful practice of dentistry. Whereas a dentist who followed the dental-school and self-practice path has a smaller range of possibilities : ranging only from a dentist practice for poor people versus a dentist practice for rich people.Ĭhallenge the notion that probability is about what may happen in the future, not events in the observed past - that an event that has already taken place has 100% probability. Interesting thoughts on investing and misjudging randomness inside lots of blather.Ĭonsider all possible parallel paths of outside effects : janitor who won the lottery would have had 999,999 lives with unsuccessful lottery tickets, and one possible life winning. Mr Black Swan sure does love the sound of his own voice. Go to the Amazon page for details and reviews. Fooled by Randomness - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Derek Sivers Derek Sivers Fooled by Randomness - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
0 kommentar(er)
